NCAA Football Picks Blog

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SATURDAY 10/11/2008

7:00 PM EDT

1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)

BAYLOR -4½ over Iowa State

The Bears and Cyclones won’t isn’t exactly be a preview of the Big 12 Championship, but these two aren’t the doormats of the past, either. Iowa State head coach Gene Chizik and his Cyclones had Kansas on the ropes last week with a 20-0 halftime lead, only to see it go up in smoke in a rough 35-33 loss. That loss, on top of a heartbreaking overtime loss to UNLV and a clunker of a rivalry game against Iowa has made for a tough month around Ames.

Baylor has sparked up with the emergence of freshman dynamo Robert Griffin at quarterback under the direction of new head coach Art Briles. The Bears got blasted at Oklahoma last week, but that’s little more than a speed bump on this team’s road to respectability. They will get over last week’s loss much easier than the Cyclones will get over their defeat.

Iowa State has had problems against the run, and against running quarterbacks. UNLV’s Omar Clayton is more of a passer than a runner, but he was able to get moving a little bit while Frank “The Tank” Summers barreled for 109 yards. Kent State’s Julian Edelman ran for 65 yards while RB Eugene Jarvis ran for 139 yards and a score. Basically, Iowa State’s defensive front can be run on. The Bears might have been blasted by the Sooners, but Griffin got his 102 yards and two touchdowns in.

We like to go against teams that are in a bad spot as Iowa State is here, as they are an atrocious 0-9 SU (-28.2 ppg) & 0-9 ATS (-12.9 ppg) on the road off a conference game allowing 35+ points since 2002.

The Cyclone’s setback last week was most disappointing because they blew that 20-0 halftime lead.

"This loss hurts a lot," quarterback Austen Arnaud said.

We like to play AGAINST a team with a coach and/or players admitting that they suffered a disheartening loss and have to follow it up with another tough game.

We also have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM showing that after coming up just short as a double-digit home underdog, road underdogs and small favorites have had very little fight left. It states:

From Game 4 on, play AGAINST a road team (not a favorite of 4+ points) with less than 13 days rest off a SU loss of less than 3 points as a home underdog of more than 10 points.

Since 1984, these teams are a horrible 0-17 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 13 ppg on average.

Iowa State is the PLAY AGAINST team in that role, while Baylor has some good numbers in their favor. Baylor is 8-0 SU (+13.6 ppg) & 8-0 ATS (+7.7 ppg) as a favorite of less than 12 points when not seeking revenge for a road SU loss more than 2 seasons ago. We expect the Bears to jump on the Cyclones early and cruise to a comfortable SU & ATS victory.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BAYLOR 35 IOWA STATE 21

This entry was posted on Saturday, October 11th, 2008 at 1:28 am and is filed under NCAA Football Picks.You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.