College Bowl Pick STAR SELECTIONS
Posted by: NCAA Football Picks Sports Handicapper in NCAA Football PicksPRO INFO SPORTS did it again on Friday with a STAR SELECTION WINNER in the Motor City Bowl. See our write-up below and you'll understand why we offer the best information, analysis, and advice available. Then join us for the rest of the Bowls starting Saturday, as we have STAR SELECTIONS on all 3 Bowl Games! Get our "Total Football" package for all NFL STAR SELECTIONS as well…right through the Super Bowl.
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MOTOR CITY BOWL - FORD FIELD, DETROIT
DECEMBER 26, 8 PM EST - ESPN
3 STAR SELECTION (3% of Bankroll)
Florida Atlantic +7 over Central Michigan
The Chippewas will make their third consecutive appearance in the Motor City Bowl on Friday when they take on the Owls. Both of these teams were champions of their respective conferences last season, but failed to duplicate that effort this season, but did well enough to get bowl invites.
Last season Florida Atlantic earned a spot in the New Orleans Bowl where the team dismantled Memphis, 44-27. Early on this year the Owls did not perform like a postseason team. In fact, they dropped five of their first six games, including four straight. Florida Atlantic took on the challenge to rebound and the team did just that, winning five of its last six contests to finish 6-6. Florida Atlantic closed out its regular season, and became bowl eligible with a thrilling, 57-50 overtime victory over rival Florida International.
Central Michigan will be making their third straight bowl appearance with their lone bowl victory coming back in 2006 when they defeated Middle Tennessee, 31-14, in appearance #1 in the Motor City Bowl. Last year, the Chippewas fell in this bowl to Purdue in heartbreaking fashion, 51-48. CMU suffered another tough loss to Purdue, 32-25 this season, but then caught fire, winning six consecutive games, setting up a shot at another Mid-American Conference title. Unfortunately the Chips would not get that chance, as the team fell to Ball State, 31-24 at home. What was even more stunning was the team's 56-52 loss to Eastern Michigan in its season-finale.
The Owls flew high this season in large part because of the team's success through the air, as Florida Atlantic averaged over 250 passing ypg. Overall Florida Atlantic produced nearly 400 total ypg, leading to a healthy 25 ppg. Rusty Smith led the way under center, as the QB threw for almost 3000 yards and 22 touchdowns. He was also named the Sun Belt Player of the Year. While the passing attack for the Owls gets most of the attention, the ground game can’t be overlooked, as it churned out over 140 ypg on the ground, and averaged 4.5 ypc. RB Charles Pierre earned All-Sun Belt Second Team honors with nearly 1000 yards rushing and 8 touchdowns, while racking up 6.5 ypc.
Where the Owls had trouble this season was on the defensive side of the football, as the squad allowed more than 400 total ypg, and that led to 29 ppg. The defensive unit was really abused on the ground, surrendering 183 ypg and 23 rushing touchdowns on the year; however, they did fare better against the pass.
Much like the Owls, the Chippewas rely heavily on their passing attack, as the team torched opponents for a almost 300 ypg through the air this season. Overall this unit produced 427 total ypg, and that led to an impressive 30 ppg. Dan LeFevour, who was the MAC Player of the Year this past season, finished with over 2,500 passing yards and 19 TDs against just 5 interceptions. Unfortunately for CMU, the team did not enjoy much success with its ground attack, as the team's leading rusher was LeFevour with 536 yards.
Central Michigan's defensive unit was torched for more than 285 ypg through the air this season. Overall this defense allowed 424 total ypg, and that led to 31 ppg. The unit also had trouble getting off the field, as the team allowed opponents to convert on 44 percent of their third down attempts and 50 percent of their fourth down chances.
This game figures to be somewhat of a shoot-out, and we like the Owls chances of keeping up. Howard Schnellenberger certainly knows how to get a team ready for a Bowl game, as he is 5-0 SU & ATS lifetime in bowl games. Way back in 1983, Schnellenberger coached Miami to a 31-30 upset of Nebraska in the Orange Bowl that clinched the first of Miami's five national titles.
We have several more handicapping factors and technical details that have us with the underdog in this game.
First, we generally look to play ON a Christmas-New Year’s Eve underdog. For every over-confident favorite this time of year, there's usually a motivated, quality underdog.
We also like to play ON a Bowl underdog with the better Yards Per Play difference. The YPP is a measure of team efficiency, both offensively and defensively. Offensively, the higher the YPP the better, and on the defensive side, the lower the better. An underdog with a higher YPP differential has the potential to control the line of scrimmage and consequently, a great chance of winning the game outright. It’s rare that an underdog this big has an actual YPP edge, but such is the case here.
Despite allowing 50+ points in one of its final 2 games, Bowl underdogs of more than a FG have been undervalued under the conditions outlined in a Bowl POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of more than 3 points with less than 36 days rest off allowing 50+ points in its last game or game before that vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship favorite SU & ATS win.
This situation is a perfect 10-0 ATS since at least 1980, beating the spread by 10 ppg on average. It may be even better than that but the SportsDataBase goes back only to 1980.
Another handicapping strategy is to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'. Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite, especially if the line move did not happen a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number. Here, the Chippewas opened as 6½-point favorites, which has climbed to 7 at most sportsbooks.
While Central Michigan is playing this game in nearby Detroit, we often look to play AGAINST a Bowl favorite that is playing at home or close to home in-state. The team may be overconfident and enjoying the local “red-carpet” a little too much. Without a trip to a new and interesting place, the game may lose the interest of the players. Meanwhile, the pointspread will provide the line value to the visiting team. What makes matters worse, is that the team has played here the past 2 years. Teams can certainly get stale returning once again to the same spot as years previous. BYU, for example, played in their 4th straight Las Vegas Bowl this week, and they have failed to cover the spread in the last 2 tries at “Sin City”.
We’ve also found that teams playing poor defense in their final 3 games, have had no business being installed as a bowl favorite. This POWER SYSTEM reads:
From December 23rd on, play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of 3+ points off allowing 25+ points in each of its last 3 games vs. an opponent with less than 38 days rest. Over the past decade of Bowl play, these teams are a horrible 0-9 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 17 ppg on average.
Finally, despite even having a better record, Bowl favorites off a favorite loss have struggled under the conditions described in our last NCAA Football Bowl POWER SYSTEM. Central Michigan qualifies for this one that states:
Play AGAINST a road/neutral site Bowl favorite with less than 41 days rest off a favorite SU loss vs. an opponent with fewer season SU wins not off a conference home SU loss as a favorite of more than 8 points.
Since the early 1980s, these teams are 0-10 ATS, failing to cover by nearly 23 ppg on average.
The Chippewas poor defense and expected over-confidence will contribute to this game being much closer than they would like and give the Owls the opportunity to steal a win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 33 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 30
ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA ATLANTIC 24 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 21!
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